In the first debate for the 2024 U.S. Republican presidential nomination, the candidates sought to divert focus from former President Donald Trump. However, one unexpected figure stole much of the spotlight – Vivek Ramaswamy, a newcomer to the political arena. While Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis have been prominent figures in the race, their dominance did not extend to the debate stage on Wednesday night.
Former President Donald Trump, leading in the polls, chose to skip the GOP’s initial primary debate and instead opted for an interview with recently fired Fox News host Tucker Carlson. On the other hand, DeSantis attended the debate but was overshadowed by Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur with a pro-Bitcoin stance. DeSantis, once considered the top contender against a second Trump presidency, fell behind in most polls due to campaign changes and financial difficulties.
Vivek Ramaswamy, a 38-year-old tech entrepreneur, emerged as an unexpected contender in the Republican presidential nomination race. Despite being a newcomer and trailing Trump in the polls, he has gained ground in recent weeks, even earning a spot at the forefront alongside DeSantis. Ramaswamy impressed the audience with his adeptness for video and his ability to stay on point. He highlighted his humble beginnings and emphasized how his immigrant parents’ sacrifices enabled him to establish billion-dollar enterprises.
Blockchain-based betting platforms like Polymarket and Manifold operate with limited legal backing in the United States. These platforms allow users to place bets on various subjects, including political races. While the accuracy of prediction markets for gauging election probabilities is debatable, they serve as an intriguing gauge of public sentiment.
According to data from crypto betting platforms, Ramaswamy has surged ahead of DeSantis in the past week, positioning himself as the leading contender to challenge Trump. Polymarket, the largest blockchain-based prediction market, has attracted nearly $5 million in bets regarding the Republican nomination race, despite its illegality for betting in the U.S. While the betting lines on Polymarket have remained relatively stable following the recent debate, heightened activity and volatility are expected as the 2024 presidential race unfolds.
Currently, Donald Trump holds a clear lead on Polymarket, in alignment with most polls. The higher voting costs for betting in favor of a second Trump nomination indicate a higher perceived likelihood of his victory. On Polymarket, betting 71 cents for a Trump win earns $1, while betting 32 cents against yields nothing if he loses. Despite DeSantis’s debate performance, his support on Polymarket only slightly dipped from 14 to 12 cents in the past week.
During the debate, Ramaswamy, the entrepreneur and political newcomer, received praise for setting himself apart from well-known politicians. This distinction translated into support on Polymarket and general prediction markets, where he enjoys a lead over DeSantis in the race for the GOP nomination. Over the course of the week, bets favoring Ramaswamy rose from 13 to 16 cents. While Ramaswamy’s pro-Bitcoin stance might explain his popularity on platforms like Polymarket, his lead in the secondary race is also evident in polling and conventional betting markets.
Vivek Ramaswamy has unexpectedly risen as a prominent contender in the Republican presidential nomination race. His performance in the first debate, coupled with his unique background and pro-Bitcoin stance, has propelled him ahead of well-known politicians like Ron DeSantis. As the 2024 presidential race progresses, it will be interesting to see whether Ramaswamy’s popularity on blockchain betting platforms translates into broader support among Republican voters.
Leave a Reply