Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced slight upward movement leading up to July 12, coinciding with a major macroeconomic event scheduled for later in the day. Analysts have been closely monitoring BTC’s price momentum as it gradually approaches the $31,000 mark. Despite starting the week with relatively low volatility and clearly defined range highs and lows, market liquidity has been tight. Traders are eagerly awaiting the release of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, which is expected to indicate a slowing down of U.S. inflation.
Anticipating the CPI Release
As market participants eagerly await the release of the CPI data, financial commentator Tedtalksmacro highlights that the Cleveland Fed, University of Michigan, and Truflation are all forecasting a similar inflation rate of around 3.2%. Traders acknowledge the potential for flash volatility following the data release, as Bitcoin often determines its trajectory shortly after such events. Daan Crypto Trades warns of a possible “Darth Maul” candle, where both low timeframe highs and lows are broken shortly after the CPI release. After this initial volatility, the market typically settles on a direction, which could then target either the $31,100 or $30,200 level.
Historical Patterns and Bull Runs
DecenTrader’s analysis reveals that the previous four CPI data releases have followed a similar pattern, characterized by both upward and downward volatility before returning to its pre-release price level. Looking at longer timeframes, popular trader Moustache examines the prospects of a classic bull run. Moustache notes that the BTC/USD monthly chart is currently breaking out above its 20-period simple moving average (SMA). According to Moustache, every time BTC has closed above the SMA 20 line on a monthly basis, it has confirmed the beginning of a bull run.
Bitcoin’s price movement leading up to the US CPI release has generated anticipation among traders and analysts. As BTC gradually inches higher, market participants are waiting to see how the CPI data will impact its trajectory. The expected slowing down of U.S. inflation has the potential to reshape the market, but flash volatility after the release may obscure the true direction. Additionally, the historical pattern of Bitcoin’s price behavior following CPI releases suggests a return to pre-release levels after initial volatility. However, the breakout above the SMA 20 line on the monthly chart indicates the possibility of a classic bull run. Traders and investors will closely monitor these developments to inform their investment decisions in the volatile cryptocurrency market.
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